Heading for a well-deserved exit?
So the Jersey Senatorial campaign is finally upon us and though most people seem as excited about the line-up as someone on their way to the dentist here at 'Not The State Media!' we thought we would bow to Trevor's drive to try and get the debate rolling with some early and deliberately brief thoughts on who is most likely to come out smiling when the Fat Lady hits her final note on October 15. Thoughts, we would stress, that are not our preferred outcome for the betterment of the Island - but rather what appears the most likely outcome as we stand now!
In Trevor's view - and we have to say he has us convinced - what we are looking at here is likely to be a 'three tier' political struggle of near certainties, possibles and almost certainly nots with both the eventual poll-topper almost impossible to call with any confidence and only one seat truly up for grabs. Far worse being the suspicion that if you want positive change and an end to the 'Jersey Way' of self-interest and cronyism it is sadly looking like that trip to the dentist would be a whole lot more exciting - unless the very real prospect of Senator Philip Ozouf biting the dust is enough to get you doing handstands...
The 'Anchorman' heading for the top?
We will of course do a more detailed post outlining individual analysis on all of the above candidates and attempting to answer these and many more questions at a later date. In the meantime however what we feel must be stated is that in our view only one certainty can be proclaimed about the whole six we tip alongside Sarah Ferguson for success: This being that though the reasons may differ all the way from cowardice to contempt if elected not a single one of them will put the interests of the ordinary Islander first - let alone those abandoned down at the truly sharp end of three terms of ministerial economic myopia. They are Establishment to the very bone. You have thus been warned...
1. Senator Alan Maclean.
2. Senator Ian Gorst
3. Deputy Andrew Green
4. Senator Philip Bailhache
5. Senator Sarah Ferguson
6. Senator Paul Routier
7. Senator Lyndon Farnham
5 into 1 won't go - 'The Possibles'...
5 into 1 won't go - 'The Possibles'...
The best of the 2011 intake but...
This second tier is in many ways the most intriguing of all. For just as the predicted Top 7 is in no way based on ability or commitment to the interests of the majority the success or otherwise of the five 'possibles' below hinge hugely on a few factors almost impossible to predict. For example: whilst current St. Brelade No. 1 Deputy John Young stands out head and shoulders above the rest of the States 2011 election intake has he given himself a high enough profile to now carry this predominantly excellent work forward?
On the other hand can the undoubtedly articulate Anne Southern get beyond the country parish disdain for husband Geoff to secure enough votes to support the likely ones from the urban parishes? Can Malcolm Ferey dispel the seemingly widely held view that he has cynically exploited his position at CAB for political ambition - or that he is in reality just another Establishment Party wannabe? Perhaps most fascinating of all can the previously 'dead in the water' Philip Ozouf now exploit the untimely retirement of Senator Alan Breckon - a man sure to have beaten him to somehow scrape home? Such questions could yet dramatically swing the whole political outcome and send any of the five up or down...
1. Deputy John Young
2. Anne Southern
3. Malcolm Ferey
4. Dr Zoe Cameron
5. Senator Philip Ozouf
And the 'Almost Certainly Nots'
Desperate for Power
Its sad to find ourselves listing some of the candidates below within this bottom tier for its likely they include people who would be of the very best benefit to the wider Island community. At 'Not The State Media!' we simply feel some of these will likely fail due to a variety of realities it is often difficult to circumvent. For example: Christopher Magee's platform on legalising cannabis is a brave and admirable one. Yet can he get beyond the general lack of awareness of the subject; the country parishes entrenched Conservatism and his being seen - quite wrongly probably - as a one issue candidate? The truth is some of the seven will even fail simply due to a lack of political profile and an understanding of how to rectify this
Can first ever Polish candidate Konrad Krusznski somehow get beyond the sadly lingering insular racism of all too many in Jersey? Can Former Deputy Guy de Faye find a way to convince enough voters that just because he was overbearingly arrogant and also wasted a £100,000,000 of taxpayers money on a technically redundant eyesore incinerator last time around he still deserves another chance? Or in Deputy Sean Power's case should being a man who steals personal email correspondence; supplies it to an internet cyber-bullying site and - even subsequently having been caught - was only last year once again exposed abusing his position as Chair of the Planning Applications Panel to email applicant's personal data to his political cronies not debar him from securing an Island-Wide mandate and with it a likely Ministerial position?
1. Konrad Kruszynski
2. Christopher Magee
3. Deputy Sean Power
4. Shirley Baudains-Osborn
5. Guy de Faye
6. Geoffrey Habin
7. David Richardson
The answer to such fascinating questions are of course entirely in the hands of we the voters. And this is the way it should be. All we at 'Not The State media!' would say to the electorate is make sure you really do your utmost to find out the truth behind the glossy 'manifestos' and mainstream media propaganda for Establishment candidates. For if you don't - just as we found we had no choice but to predict - you will likely be getting a whole lot more of the same and what is more you will wholly deserve it.
Have fun! At least while there is still hope for change...
Post by 'Not The State Media!' 18/09/2014